Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status:Finalised Material from: Linus, Mohammed, Fernando, Ervin
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, Ivan
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/09/26/sc/ http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/09/28/sc/ http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/09/29/sc/ |
1. Impact
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The hurricane Matthew hit south-western Haiti on 4 October and killed more than 900 people. The hurricane later hit Barbados (6 October) and stoke along the coast of Florida on 7 October and South Carolina on 7 and 8 October, killing at least 16 people |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Matthew
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The plots below compares different centres for the forecast from8 October 00z.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below shows the tropical cyclone activity for the week of 3-10 October.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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- For issues with drop sondes, compare with Joaquin (2015) and Gonzalo (2014).
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- The cyclongensis captured from around 22-23 September, but too far west and predicted propagation into Gulf of Mexico
- Good prediction of the northward turn, but with large uncertainties (not necessary at bad thing)
- Still large uncertainties about the landfall on Florida in short-range forecasts
- Falsely predicted a southward turn in forecasts around 7 October
- Problems to assimilate drop sondes, especially for e-suite, resulting in destructed cyclone in the analyses