...
The plots below show forecasts of 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 27 July.
(Add observation plot)
3.3 ENS
EFI for CAPE-shear is shown below starting from T+156-180h to T+0-24h. All the forecasts are valid for 27 July 2017.
...
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good medium-range signal in the CAPE EFI.
- Probably under-predicted the strength of the convection
- Missed the wind gust part of the convective event