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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
1. Impact
On 21 September the windstorm Knud affected the countries around the North Sea and Sweden. The strongest wind gusts affected areas along the Norwegian coast wind. The cyclone was also named Bronagh on the British Isles where it brought heavy rainfall in the Midlands. In front of the cyclone, extremely warm air was advected with temperatures above 30 degrees in Germany. The name from Frie Universitat Berlin was Elena.
2. Description of the event
The series of plots below show satellite images from yr.no starting from 00UTC on 21 September to 00UTC on 22 September.
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The next series of plots show an MSLP and short range (6-hour) precipitation.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below show observed 24-hour wind gusts (first plot) valid for 21 September and HRES forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts (shade) and MSLP valid 21 September 12UTC (contour). The signal in EFI became much stronger between 17 September 00UTC and 12UTC and was relatively consistent after that.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 21 September. The signal in EFI became much stronger between 17 September 00UTC (Monday) and 18 September 00UTC (Tuesday) forecasts, in similarity with HRES.
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The plots below show cyclone feature maps for 1 km maximum wind within 300 km radius, valid for 21 September 12UTC.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- The strong signal for the event appeared 4 days in advance