Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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The plots below show 24-hour accumulated precipitation 21 December 00UTC to 22 October 00UTC in forecasts with different initial times. The MSLP valid at 21 December 12UTC is included as well. Moderate rainfall (20-30 mm/24h) with possibilities of extreme rainfall was indicated in HRES forecasts from 17 December 12UTC and onwards.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation valid 21 December. High SOT values start to appears in the forecast from 18 December north of Sri Lanka, indicating that some members have extreme rainfall.
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 24-hour rainfall on 21 December for a point north of Maankulam, which got more than 300 mm during the day. The blue box-and-whisker shows the ensemble distribution, the red dot the HRES forecast and the red box-and-whisker the climate distribution based on re-forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The figure below shows verification of weekly precipitation anomalies for 17-23 December. The first panel shows the anomalies in the analysis and subsequent panels the forecast valid to the same week.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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