Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
On 1 October the tropical Lorenzo hit the island Flores in the Azores. The cyclone caused a severe damage to the harbour on the island.
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
he plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, HRES - red, ENS control - blue, best track - black), position and intensity on 1 October 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 1 October (first plot) to 15 September (last plot). The cyclone was recognised as a tropical storm on 24 September.
The plots below show the cyclone intensity in terms of central pressure (top), maximum wind speed (middle) and the propagation speed (bottom) for the forecasts from 1 October (first plot) to 24 September (last plot).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show anomalies of tropical storm strike probability 23-30 September in extended-range forecasts, starting from the latest forecast (23 September).
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- Very good early signal for cyclogenesis