Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linu, Esti, Sharan
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2. Description of the event
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3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show tracks from HRES (red), ensemble control (blue) and ensemble member (grey) and intensity and positions on 4 August 12UTC (symbols). The BestTrack positions and intensities are in circles for every 6th hour, which an hourglass marking 4 August 12UTC. The forecasts shown are from 4 August 00UTC (first plot) back to 25 July 00UTC (last plot), issued every 24 hour. Note that the cyclone had a slow bias in predicting the position on 4 August 12UTC.
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