...
The plots below show 24-hour accumulated precipitation between 17 September 00UTC to 18 September 00UTC in observations (first plot) and short HRES forecasts (12 hours apart). All forecasts missed the localised extreme precipitation in southern Italy. The error could be related to a slight shift to the south of the rainbands around Ianos together with the complex local terrain.
Real (first plot) and simulated satellite images in forecasts from 17 Sept 00UTC, all valid 17 Sept 12UTC in 9km, 4km and 3km-Explict Conv experiments.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI for precipitation valid on 17 September, in forecast with 1 day apart. A big jump appeared between 14 and 15 September. The ensemble missed the risk of extreme rainfall on the Italian coast as it kept the extreme over sea.
...