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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
In the end of August 2022 large parts of Pakistan was hit by extreme rainfall and severe flooding. The extreme rainfall seems also to have hit parts of Afghanistan.
Pakistan was devastated by widespread floods in end of August 2022. Since the beginning of the monsoon season in June a third of the country has been badly affected by floods that have killed more than 1000 people and displaced 33 million. There are several important aspect that have caused these devastating floods. First, Pakistan is a home of 221 million people and the majority of the population live along the Indus River, which flows from the Himalayas, through most of the country down to the Arabian Sea at Karachi. In the northern Himalayan regions of Pakistan there are more glaciers than anywhere else in the world outside the Arctic and Antarctic. Rising global temperatures are causing those glaciers to melt and form glacial lakes. Around 3,000 new lakes have formed, with officials warning 33 of them are currently at risk of bursting. Many already have so far this year. When the Shisper glacier burst in May, it released millions of cubic metres of water, causing landslides and creating a lake that destroyed a bridge, two power plants and hundreds of homes in the Hunza Valley. Due to glacier melting mentioned above and some episodes of heavy rain, river Indus is flowing full already from the north of the country but the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan are also suffering very extreme levels of rainfall – Sindh in the southeast has had 784% of its normal rainfall levels this year, while Balochistan in the southwest has had 522% (all these data has been reported in the media), such as melting glaciers, an active monsoon season and a week of widespread intense rainfall.
https://floodlist.com/asia/pakistan-floods-update-august-2022
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The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 23-25 August. The outlined box is the southern box used below.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation valid 23 August 00UTC - 26 August 00UTC for the southern box. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS CF - purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. In the distributions the black square represents the median and diamond ensemble mean.
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