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The "rejection charts" highlight a cluster of wind and temp observations with low weight which seems to be related with the strong convective activity in the region. The increment charts at 200 hPa suggest that the observations are trying to "correct" the background even under these conditions.
3.2 HRES
We cannot expect the model to capture tornadoes, but the conevective environment. The figures above show the HRES forecast for CAPE (00+23h) and accumulated precipitation +23-24h. Little Rock is marked with an hourglass symbol. For this hour, the maximum precipitation exceeded 20 mm/h).
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- We cannot expect the forecast to capture tornadoes, but the convective environment.
- Good forecast of the flow situation in the medium-range
- High 1-hour precipitation values for the 27 April 00UTC run
- The tornado appeared around 00UTC, problem with the EFI accumulation period (00-00UTC)
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