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Extreme forecast index - EFI, and shift of tails - SOT

The extraction of extreme weather-related information from the ensemble is not always straightforward.  For example, the probabilities themselves do not reveal whether a certain value is unusual or even extreme.  A 30% probability of >20mm rainfall in 6hr in July would not be extreme” in New Delhi, but would be in Cairo.

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Ensemble members giving forecast values well beyond the M-climate extreme contribute no more to the EFI than members just matching the M-climate extreme.   The ‘Shift of Tails’ (SOT) is an additional product that has been developed to address this point.  The SOT index complements the EFI by providing information about how extreme an event could potentially be.  Specifically, it compares the tails of the ensemble distribution and M-climate distribution.

Additional Sources of Information

(Note: In older material there may be references to issues that have subsequently been addressed)

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