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Fig 8.1.12.3: An example of ENS and HRES winds plotted as hodographs.  Depending on the case, these can be very informative (e.g. the consistency of significant shear among ENS members).

CAPE and CIN diagram

The CAPE and CIN diagram shows the distribution of the most unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) for three different categories of Convective Inhibition (CIN) in box and whisker format.   

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These diagrams indicate the variation among ENS members of the intensity of convection that may occur (CAPE) together with the likelihood of attaining the release of that convection (i.e. overcoming CIN).  Three arbitrary ranges of CIN are shown: CIN <50J/kg representing a fairly low energy requirement before release of convection,  CIN >200J/kg representing a more substantial energy requirement, and an intermediate value range of CIN.  The vertical scale shows the CAPE energy in J/kg if convection is released.  Box and whisker symbols have their normal meanings.  Black filled circles are shown where there are 5 or fewer ENS members where convection is released.  The numbers of ENS members within each CIN category are given at the top of each column.  The number of members without release of CAPE is shown in the top right hand corner (e.g. CAPE=0:23 meaning 23 ENS members failed to identify any CAPE in the forecast ENS ascent).

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Fig8.1.12.8: The ENS forecast frontal zones from the cyclone database products T (example) T+120hr VT:00UTC 22 Aug 2020, DT:00UTC 17 Aug 2020.  Inset shows magnified area around Denmark.  Animation of cyclone database products allows an assessment of the developing spread and changing intensity of frontal features.  

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