Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan, Tim
| Show If | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
|
1. Impact
On 4-5 September the low-pressure system named Storm Daniel produced extreme rainfall over south-eastern Europe, notably Greece where the one station measured more than 1000 mm/24h. The rainfall led to widespread flooding. Also in Bulgaria and Turkey the system caused damages and fatalities.
This event has also been discussed in two ECMWF Newsletter articles: here and here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Daniel
...
The plot below shows the same as above but for 4.4km DestinE forecasts.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (4 September 00UTC - 7 September 00UTC) from different initial dates. The signal for extreme precipitation appeared 4 days before the event (31 August).
...
The plots below show global analyses for 30 August to 5 September (all 00UTC).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
...
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event