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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation (19 October 00UTC - 20 October 00UTC) a 0.5x0.5 box around Angus, Scotland (centred on 56.9N, 2.9W). Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1600 forecasts. One can see a sharp increase in signal on 14 October.
During 18-20 October large parts of western Europe was covered by extreme rainfall, as seen in the 3-day EFI map below from 18 October. The next forecast evolution plot shows the mean 3-day precipitation over land point inside the box of 35N-60N, 10W-10E. The plot includes concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts. One can see in the shortest forecast that all ensemble members exceeded the maximum value in the model climatology (for this time of the year). The signal was picked up gradually in the from 10 October and onwards.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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