Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Esti
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: 2024-01-15, 2024-01-16, 2024-01-17, 2024-01-18,
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2. Description of the event
Map showing the risk of freezing rain and snow based on the latest Vigilance Meteo France and DWD briefing for the next days highlighting the regions (red) of risk of snow and freezing rain.
MeteoAlarm site with weather warning for 17 January 2023.
Bonn ECMWF office on 18th January 2023.
Radar in Europe on 17 January 2023 at 12 UTC
Observations on France and Germany on 17 January at 1 and 4 UTC
3. Predictability
2-Day accumulation of snowfall for Bonn predictability plot.
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
Snow depth forecast jumpiness
Forecast consistency of snow depth valid for the same date/time -Thursday.
Tephigrams of observed and predicted profiles for Paris and Germany. Surface observations of the present weather at the same date & time.
3.3 ENS
Precipitation type meteogram for Paris for successive forecast basetimes. Vertical profile for Paris valid for tomorrow morning.
Snowfall ENS distribution evolution for Bonn; precipitation type meteogram for Bonn. Evidence of ice palettes in Esti's home patio.
igilance MeteoFrance weather warning for tomorrow and EFI D+2 snowfall.
Most likely precipitation type plots (3) and corresponding meteogram for a place SW of Paris.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional material
Snow depth observations from DWD and precipitation type observations on 17 and 18 at different times.