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Regarding events of 14th, which caused 19 fatalities in Oman (compared to 1 in UAE) the plots below show the ecPoint 99th percentile from leads of 8, 4 and 2 days in advance. We don't have many measurements, but very dramatic floodwater videos, and data we do have, suggest that 100-500mm very probably fell in a short period of time in hills/mountains north of the crosshairs marker on the plots. Here there is again a signal well in advance (though at a lower level than for 16th given this is the 99th percentile). This grew markedly in forecasts from 4 to 2 days in advance. For comparison, the last plot below shows the equivalent 99th percentile from the raw ENS output (=max in the ENS here). As usual values are less than ecPoint, and much more noisy.
Day 8 ecPoint forecast (95th 99th percentile) for Oman floods (14 April)
Day 4 ecPoint forecast (95th 99th percentile) for Oman floods (14 April)
Day 2 ecPoint forecast (95th 99th percentile) for Oman floods (14 April)
Day 2 RAW ENS forecast (99th percentile) for Oman floods (14 April)
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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