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The plots below shows the operational TC plumes (ENS+HRES) for Pam. The first forecast is from 9 March 00z. In all the forecast HRES had a minimum pressure below 920 hPa on 13 March (except the last forecast that may suffered from too close to the initialisation). ENS had at least a minimum pressure 20 hPa higher.
Gallery includeLabel tc_pam_oper sort name title TC Metgrams from Pam (Operational)
The next plot shows the tropical storm strike probability for 12-14 March from the forecast 8 March (unfortunately I forgot to save the forecasts from earlier dates).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show the strike probability of tropical storms for the week 9-15 March.
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The plots below show the MJO forecasts. The developments of the tropical cyclones during the week 9-15 March was connected to a very strong MJO event. The development of the MJO was in the forecast since 26 February.
Gallery includeLabel mjo sort comment title MJO forecasts
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good intensity from HRES
- Position error present until forecast from 10 March for HRES but covered by the ensemble plume
- Increased tropical cyclone activity in Monthly forecast from 26 February and onwards, probably due to extreme MJO
- Good test case for ASCAT observations
6. Additional material
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