Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
On 1 December heavy snowfall hit Denmark and southern Sweden. Locally 30 cm of snow fell on northern Jutland and in southern Sweden.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59509814
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) from 29 November 00UTC to 3 December 00UTC, every 24 hour.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts from 30 November 00UTC to 2 December 00UTC every 12h.
The figure below shows the snow depth in analysis (shade) and observations (numbers) on 2December 06UTC.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 1-day snow fall valid for 1 December. On northern Jutland the SOT values reached 5, which is very high. In the forecast from 30 December the snowfall was weaker on the northern side of the band.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour snowfall valid 1 December 00UTC - 2 December 00UTC in Aalborg on northern Jutland. HRES –red, ENS - blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. The unit is mm of snow water equivalent.
The plot below shows the same as above but for total precipitation. The observation in Aalborg was 17 mm. However the station can have had problems with catching snow.
The plots below shows cyclonic features on 1 November 12UTC, with the colour marking the maximum 12-hour snowfall within 300 km from the centre of the cyclone.
