Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
On 5 February tropical cyclone Batsirai made landfall on Madagascar. The cyclone had earlier affected Mauritius and La Reunion.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-60264389
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below shows surface winds from a SAR image from Sentinel (left) and a short (15-hour) HRES forecast. The data is valid for 4 February 15UTC.
Real (left) and simulated (right) infrared image valid for 4 February 15UTC (same as above).
Same as above but with the same zoom as the wind images.
The plots below show the difference between HRES and ERA5 24-hour precipitation for 3 February at 1 & 3 days lead time
The plots below show the GPM IMERG satellite precipitation for 3 and 5 February (left), the HRES 24-hour precipitation at 1 day ahead (centre), and the difference between HRES and GPM IMERG 24-hour precipitation (right)
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 5 February 00UTC (first plot) to 26 January 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 5 February 00UTC. HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show the tropical storm activity during the week 31 January - 6 February from different initial times.
The plots below show the same a above but for probability of anomaly greater than normal activity.
The plots below show MJO forecasts from 31 January (left), 24 Jan (middle) and 17 January (right).
