Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/10/23/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/10/24/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/10/25/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/10/28/sc/
1. Impact
On the 28 October a wind storm hit north-western Europe. In total 14 people were killed across Europe (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24705734). The main affected countries where France, UK, The Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and Sweden. In Denmark the higher ever wind gust (for Denmark) was measured on Kegnäs on Als (53 m/s).
2. Description of the event
From DMI.
From DMI.
3. Predictability (including 40r1 E-suite evaluation)
3.1 HRES
The figures below shows forecasts of MSLP valid for 28 Oct 12 UTC and maximum wind gust during the 28 October. The o-suite is plotted in the left column and the e-suite in the right.
The figure above shows forecasts initialised 28 Oct 0 UTC. For southern England, the e-suite has less intense wind gusts than o-suite. For souther Scandinavia, it seems like the band of the highest wind gusts are a little bit to far north for both suites.
The figure above shows forecasts initialised 27 Oct 0 UTC (+36h).
The figure above shows forecasts initialised 26 Oct 0 UTC (+60h).
The figure above shows forecasts initialised 25 Oct 0 UTC (+84h).
3.2 ENS
CDF for wind gusts for Reading valid on the 28 October. Different colour represents different initial times and the o-suite (38r2, solid) and e-suite (40r1, dotted).
3.3 Monthly forecasts
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event