Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Lorenzo
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
1. Impact
During the last weekend of January massive precipitation hit southern Europe. Several cities in northern Italy were flooded (e.g. Pisa) and Croatia and Serbia experienced severe snowfall.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25992800
2. Description of the event
z500 and t850 from 12-hour forecasts |
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MSLP and percipitation from 12-hour forecasts |
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3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
Precipitation verification and HRES forecast |
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3.3 ENS
EFI from 29 Jan 00UTC for 31 Jan to 5 Feb (day 1-5). We should produce the same to for the day before.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Weekly precipitation anomalies |
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 EFAS flood forecasts
See below the forecasts of EPIC, the flash flood component of EFAS, issued on the 29, 30 and 31 January 2014 at 00 UTC. A rather large area in the Central and North of Italy showed a significant probability to exceed the three warning threshold, corresponding to 2, 5, and 20 years.
The forecast on the 31st also detected the severe event that caused widespread flooding in Rome and the Lazio Region. (http://floodlist.com/europe/deadly-floods-italy)
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional material