Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando
1. Impact
On 16 January the windstorm Gerard hit western France.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 14 Janury 00UTC to 18 January 00UTC, every 12th hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (first plot), concatenated 6-hour forecasts (2nd plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour maximum wind gusts from 16 January 00UTC - 17 January 00UTC, from different initial dates.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 1-day maximum wind gusts on 16 January, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour maximum valid 16 January 00UTC - 17 January 00UTC for 1 degree boxes covering southern Brittanty (left) and central Normandy (right). Mean of observations - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Ensemble median as black box and ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. Note that only one observation was available in the Normandy box and might not be representative for the maximum in the full box.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- While the prediction of a windy day for the Bay of Biscay was well predicted, we northern extent was only captured in the short-range