Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Fernando, Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/06/09/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/06/10/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
On 9 June severe convection affected western Europe. In Germany 6 people were killed, mainly by falling trees. Wind gusts up to 42 m/s where reported from Duesseldorf airport.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27776189
2. Description of the event
The satellite imagery below (from late afternoon 9 June) shows convective activity occurring in France, NW Germany and Holland (also NE England). The lightning reports indicate two major areas of strong activity; in France and Germany/Holland.
Satellite sequence from EUMETSAT:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf0uLDqdoc4
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
Precipitation
24-hour precipiation
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Wind gusts
24-hour maximum wind gusts
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CAPE and CIN
Animation of RGB product from EUMETSAT, the max CAPE for +(6-24)h period (top-right) and maximum CAPE blended with CIN (CAPE is removed where CIN >= 200, bottom-left) based on 09@00 run for the HRES. One can see a good agreement between the high values of CAPE and the regions where the convection took place in particular over France and Benelux region. The convection triggered ahead of a cold front crossing the Iberia Peninsula seems to be in contradiction with the relative low values of CAPE forecast. It is possible that a dynamical lifting process helped to trigger the convection in the region
3.3 ENS
70% ENS percentile total PPN in 6h (top-left). Vis image at 1500 UTC and 3hrly PPN from HRES based on the latest run (bottom).
CDF for Duesseldorf valild 9 June. The probabilities for extreme temperatures was well captured 5 days in advance. However, not signal for heavy precipitation and strong wind gusts where present.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots bleow shows the value of the maximum member for 18-hour precipiation (06-00UTC) for EC ENS (32km), COSMO-LEPS and COSMO-DE-EPS.
Ensemble max precip
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases