Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
Heavy monsoon rain during the first week of September led to flooding in north-eastern Pakistan, and has killed about 280 people.
2. Description of the event
Information about the event can be found here:
http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Version3/2014Pakistan4179.html
Daily accumulated precipitation
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The plots above shows the observed 24-hour precipitation (symbols) day-by-day for the first week of September and short HRES forecast (36-60h). The major rainfall started on the 3 September and continued until 6 September. Please note that we currently missing observations from India.
The figure above shows the 3-day accumulation of precipitation between 3 September 00UTC and 6 September 00UTC. Close the border between Pakistan and India two stations reported more than 300 mm.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
Accumulated precipitation from HRES for 3-6 September
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The plots above shows the accumulated precipitation in HRES accumulated for 3-6 September (72 hours).
3.3 ENS
Prob. >100 m in 72 hours
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The plots above shows the probability for more than 100 mm during the 72-hour period (3-6 September) from forecasts with different initial times.
EFI for 3-day precipitation
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The plots above shows the EFI and SOT for 3-day accumulation of precipitation.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The figure above shows the ensemble mean anomalies for the week 1-7 September from different monthly forecasts, including the analysis (top panel).
3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 EFAS
The plot above is from Glofas from 6 September.
Discharge forecast for Chenab River
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The plots above shows the discharge forecast for River Chenab at a point close to Multan.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases