Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for TC Helene for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 26 September 00UTC (first plot) to 21 September 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 27 September 00UTC (hourglass for BestTrack). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black). AIFS is included in green.
The plots below show the same as above but with DestinE in purple.
The plots below show the same as above but for 49r1 e-suite.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone intensity (central pressure - top, maximum wind -bottom) for TC Helene for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 26 September 00UTC (first plot) to 21 September 00UTC (last plot). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black). AIFS is included in green.
The plots below show the same as above but with DestinE in purple.
The plots below show the same as above but for 49r1 e-suite.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event