Material from:
1. Overview
During the middle of July northern Europe, especially northern Norway and Sweden experienced a record breaking heatwave. For example Kvikkjokk (66.9N) in Sweden had maximum temperature above 30C three days in a row (15-17 July.)
2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
Here we will focus on the 3-day (15-17 July) mean temperature in a 0.5x0.5 degree box centred on Kvikkjokk, Sweden (66.9N, 18E).
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 11 July to 18 July.
2.3 Observations
2.4 Climatological perspective
3. Forecasts
3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS member 1 (~0.25 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI for 3-day temperature 15-17 July.
Forecast Evolution plot
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
The plots below show ensemble mean weekly average of 2-metre temperature 14 July - 20 July in forecasts from different initial dates (all Mondays).
The plots below show the same as above but for z500 anomalies.
