This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 1 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 14th August 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
SON 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania AIFS 1 AIFShera 1 0.087 0.108 0.083 -0.059 0.044 0.024 0.092 -0.028 0.055 0.057 0.147 0.061 AIFS 1 AIFSgaia 3 0.081 0.133 0.05 -0.08 0.034 -0.024 0.091 -0.074 -0.03 0.139 0.156 0.035 AIFS 1 AIFSthalassa 6 0.075 0.129 0.037 -0.127 0.029 -0.05 0.039 -0.046 -0.113 0.128 0.129 0.061 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 2 0.085 0.171 0.015 -0.073 0.005 -0.022 0.063 -0.024 0.095 0.054 0.113 0.053 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 7 0.064 0.125 0.002 -0.047 0.046 -0.021 0.037 -0.026 -0.064 0.107 0.122 -0.023 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 10 0.035 0.086 -0.006 -0.082 0.048 -0.041 0.066 -0.041 -0.008 0.03 0.083 0.104 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 4 0.077 0.108 0.049 -0.022 0.032 0.065 0.105 -0.002 -0.019 0.063 0.109 0.092 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 5 0.077 0.102 0.058 -0.009 0.04 0.064 0.119 -0.004 -0.002 0.056 0.113 0.082 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 9 0.047 0.044 0.06 -0.045 0.02 0.069 0.104 -0.005 -0.09 -0.015 0.099 0.04 LP 4 LPM 8 0.062 0.083 0.061 -0.014 0.024 0.017 0.087 0.019 0.032 0.021 0.092 -0.021 KITKangu 5 KanguPlusPlus 11 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguParametricPrediction 11 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 findforecast 11 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 zephyr 11 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 11 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguS2SEasyUQ 39 -1.235 -1.34 -1.045 -1.357 -1.094 -1.265 -1.194 -0.876 -1.493 -1.446 -1.178 -1.673 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 16 -0.04 -0.039 -0.052 -0.24 -0.037 0.063 0.011 -0.087 -0.151 -0.024 -0.019 -0.137 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 17 -0.04 -0.041 -0.049 -0.238 -0.039 0.068 0.008 -0.086 -0.159 -0.025 -0.017 -0.129 WindBorne 8 WeatherMesh 18 -0.125 -0.082 -0.206 -0.259 -0.153 -0.132 -0.202 -0.187 -0.14 -0.184 -0.141 -0.358 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu2 19 -0.26 -0.135 -0.434 -0.255 -0.471 -0.25 -0.732 -0.042 -0.124 -0.452 -0.491 -0.126 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu 22 -0.33 -0.385 -0.331 -0.388 -0.27 -0.177 -0.462 -0.162 -0.524 -0.629 -0.393 -0.269 Sibyl 10 ClimSDE 20 -0.298 -0.344 -0.306 -0.515 -0.19 -0.364 -0.277 -0.186 -0.28 -0.519 -0.315 -0.572
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.061 0.117 0.029 0.002 0.033 -0.014 0.003 0.058 0.133 0.11 0.072 0.129 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 2 0.053 0.08 0.032 0.028 0.025 0.02 0.01 0.027 0.06 0.065 0.077 0.047 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 14 -0.002 0.001 0.006 0.029 0.053 -0.08 0.006 -0.024 0.007 -0.077 0.042 0.078 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 3 0.051 0.099 0.006 0.039 0.045 -0.022 -0.019 0.019 0.095 0.083 0.055 0.094 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 4 0.045 0.087 0.0 0.047 0.042 -0.013 -0.026 0.046 0.114 0.017 0.044 0.103 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 8 0.009 0.021 -0.017 0.053 0.032 -0.044 -0.047 0.032 0.048 -0.06 0.001 0.059 LP 3 LPM 5 0.036 0.056 0.026 0.044 0.022 -0.059 -0.002 0.036 0.077 0.024 0.066 0.006 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.024 0.04 -0.013 0.032 0.029 0.029 -0.017 -0.051 0.118 0.009 0.033 0.009 AIFS 4 AIFShera 7 0.009 0.014 -0.02 0.005 0.045 -0.015 0.009 -0.083 0.078 0.007 0.019 0.061 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 15 -0.005 -0.028 0.0 -0.007 0.021 0.026 0.013 -0.046 0.04 -0.08 0.03 -0.117 KITKangu 5 KanguPlusPlus 9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguParametricPrediction 9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 findforecast 9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 zephyr 9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguS2SEasyUQ 39 -1.39 -1.441 -1.309 -0.861 -1.343 -1.442 -1.219 -1.261 -1.532 -1.509 -1.364 -1.174 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 16 -0.1 -0.138 -0.114 -0.127 -0.031 0.024 -0.122 -0.12 -0.117 -0.269 -0.103 0.089 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 17 -0.106 -0.142 -0.123 -0.138 -0.037 0.02 -0.134 -0.133 -0.13 -0.278 -0.102 0.09 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 18 -0.264 -0.203 -0.457 0.008 -0.308 -0.054 -0.301 -0.058 -0.098 -0.276 -0.616 -0.282 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 20 -0.35 -0.476 -0.363 -0.106 -0.205 0.007 -0.271 -0.139 -0.587 -0.678 -0.472 -0.333 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 19 -0.315 -0.342 -0.24 -0.25 -0.161 -0.439 -0.153 -0.165 -0.283 -0.584 -0.259 -0.272 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 27 -0.527 -0.778 -0.28 -0.111 -0.328 -0.427 -0.321 -0.477 -0.704 -0.923 -0.413 -0.589 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 29 -0.606 -0.731 -0.654 -0.764 -0.222 -0.092 -0.37 -0.669 -0.78 -0.854 -0.503 -0.553 Sibyl 10 ClimSDE 21 -0.386 -0.392 -0.319 -0.779 -0.261 -0.506 -0.276 -0.345 -0.634 -0.409 -0.22 -0.299
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
