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This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 11th September 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
SON 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.072 0.142 0.021 0.005 -0.016 -0.026 0.008 0.034 0.146 0.107 0.057 0.088 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 3 0.07 0.126 0.026 0.01 0.009 -0.005 -0.005 0.05 0.097 0.106 0.066 0.061 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 10 0.017 0.041 0.006 -0.023 0.003 -0.049 0.01 0.013 0.016 -0.006 0.048 -0.016 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 2 0.072 0.116 0.033 0.047 0.019 0.012 0.022 0.032 0.087 0.075 0.07 0.113 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 4 0.067 0.109 0.029 0.043 0.012 0.006 0.025 0.024 0.078 0.101 0.059 0.116 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 9 0.027 0.032 0.021 0.028 0.004 -0.001 0.015 0.024 0.012 -0.025 0.038 0.03 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 5 0.051 0.084 0.031 0.001 0.015 -0.02 0.013 0.01 0.071 0.063 0.067 -0.012 AIFS 3 AIFShera 6 0.05 0.068 0.04 0.012 0.021 0.007 0.014 0.013 0.089 0.039 0.075 0.021 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 8 0.04 0.061 0.026 -0.01 0.021 -0.006 0.005 0.006 0.051 0.037 0.062 -0.013 LP 4 LPM 7 0.05 0.073 0.031 0.046 0.014 -0.009 -0.004 0.038 0.062 0.035 0.057 0.051 scienceAI 5 findforecast 11 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.014 -0.012 0.014 -0.02 0.018 0.006 -0.003 -0.005 0.012 scienceAI 5 zephyr 12 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguPlusPlus 12 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguParametricPrediction 12 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguS2SEasyUQ 35 -1.041 -1.12 -0.975 -1.076 -0.862 -0.956 -0.919 -0.976 -1.141 -1.066 -0.97 -1.369 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 16 -0.15 -0.156 -0.212 -0.15 -0.112 -0.007 -0.123 -0.182 -0.149 -0.214 -0.181 -0.136 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 19 -0.215 -0.258 -0.205 -0.324 -0.201 -0.082 -0.192 -0.188 -0.243 -0.287 -0.246 -0.324 WindBorne 8 WeatherMesh 17 -0.174 -0.129 -0.187 -0.315 -0.174 -0.396 -0.192 -0.208 -0.124 -0.169 -0.166 -0.229 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu2 18 -0.21 -0.189 -0.337 -0.076 -0.208 -0.053 -0.252 -0.108 -0.083 -0.305 -0.426 -0.245 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu 21 -0.246 -0.328 -0.228 -0.134 -0.107 -0.163 -0.165 -0.161 -0.324 -0.424 -0.32 -0.274 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S1 20 -0.237 -0.155 -0.255 -0.314 -0.274 -0.449 -0.279 -0.173 -0.214 -0.21 -0.183 -0.249 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S3 23 -0.364 -0.376 -0.359 -0.335 -0.329 -0.519 -0.292 -0.316 -0.433 -0.454 -0.291 -0.414 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S2 26 -0.517 -0.547 -0.494 -0.448 -0.46 -0.555 -0.411 -0.535 -0.645 -0.491 -0.436 -0.618
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.054 0.102 0.015 0.02 -0.012 0.015 0.002 0.054 0.085 0.087 0.018 0.06 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 4 0.037 0.069 0.011 0.027 -0.022 0.028 -0.004 0.052 0.053 0.055 0.004 0.001 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 9 0.001 0.007 0.013 0.019 -0.004 -0.032 0.013 0.024 0.012 -0.026 0.007 -0.06 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 2 0.052 0.091 0.002 0.054 0.008 0.032 -0.016 0.045 0.084 0.062 0.027 0.076 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 3 0.049 0.089 -0.001 0.043 0.003 0.024 -0.019 0.035 0.07 0.082 0.023 0.097 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 7 0.01 0.019 -0.016 0.048 0.0 0.004 -0.022 0.039 0.028 -0.031 -0.011 0.002 LP 3 LPM 5 0.025 0.043 -0.004 0.02 0.011 0.017 -0.04 0.052 0.038 0.024 0.012 -0.014 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.017 0.031 0.014 -0.008 -0.008 0.005 -0.008 0.056 0.057 -0.002 -0.006 -0.048 AIFS 4 AIFShera 8 0.003 0.006 -0.001 -0.007 -0.014 0.007 -0.017 0.021 0.055 -0.017 -0.017 -0.018 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 15 -0.011 -0.037 0.003 -0.014 0.002 0.036 -0.01 0.038 0.011 -0.123 -0.017 -0.046 scienceAI 5 findforecast 10 0.001 -0.0 -0.003 0.022 -0.007 0.012 -0.004 0.024 -0.005 -0.008 -0.013 0.028 scienceAI 5 zephyr 11 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 11 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguPlusPlus 11 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguParametricPrediction 11 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguS2SEasyUQ 34 -1.076 -1.179 -0.995 -0.993 -0.792 -1.065 -0.952 -1.141 -1.144 -1.266 -0.9 -1.119 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 16 -0.213 -0.245 -0.296 -0.159 -0.114 -0.016 -0.228 -0.197 -0.235 -0.334 -0.267 -0.22 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 18 -0.277 -0.324 -0.271 -0.267 -0.281 -0.164 -0.232 -0.117 -0.3 -0.431 -0.371 -0.326 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 17 -0.23 -0.288 -0.306 0.012 -0.111 0.055 -0.111 -0.223 -0.127 -0.334 -0.389 -0.302 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 19 -0.281 -0.41 -0.227 -0.07 -0.076 -0.155 -0.1 -0.211 -0.395 -0.503 -0.3 -0.346 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 20 -0.288 -0.248 -0.288 -0.304 -0.387 -0.326 -0.392 -0.193 -0.25 -0.319 -0.326 -0.322 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 25 -0.525 -0.659 -0.347 -0.276 -0.464 -0.554 -0.475 -0.293 -0.575 -0.715 -0.471 -0.679 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 27 -0.589 -0.608 -0.615 -0.63 -0.553 -0.575 -0.702 -0.501 -0.732 -0.66 -0.568 -0.534 HAPPY 10 AZN 21 -0.299 -0.353 -0.252 -0.678 -0.335 -0.0 -0.21 -0.311 -0.489 -0.256 -0.28 -0.609
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
