Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando, Alessio
Picture
1. Impact
During the end of June northern Italy was hit by several outbreaks of convection.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show the observations of 24-hour precipitation (06z-06z) from 24 June to 1 July, including the regional networks that are available via the HDOBS project.
A first convective outbreak took place 25 June, including the early hours of the day. The plot shows the visual satellite image valid at 07Z on 25th June and the lightning strokes for that day.
The plot below shows the observed precipitation in Rovereto (45.53N,11.02E), the area most affected in the alpine region of Trentino. A bit more than 100mm in a single strong downpour on the 25th, with mid-sized hail and few local damages (thanks to Alessio).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
25 June
The plots below show the 24-hour precipitation on 25 June (00z-00z) from observations and HRES forecasts.
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases