This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 6 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 18th September 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
SON 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.073 0.116 0.032 0.053 0.024 0.021 0.018 0.044 0.082 0.072 0.069 0.117 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 3 0.067 0.108 0.029 0.048 0.018 0.017 0.019 0.039 0.071 0.097 0.059 0.125 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 9 0.027 0.032 0.019 0.035 0.014 0.008 0.014 0.038 0.006 -0.036 0.039 0.043 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 2 0.07 0.14 0.017 0.016 -0.016 -0.02 0.013 0.038 0.138 0.105 0.046 0.087 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 4 0.065 0.119 0.019 0.02 0.008 0.002 -0.002 0.06 0.096 0.101 0.045 0.044 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 10 0.012 0.031 0.006 -0.008 0.006 -0.053 0.023 0.023 0.024 -0.01 0.031 -0.05 LP 3 LPM 5 0.049 0.074 0.026 0.042 0.019 -0.0 -0.012 0.045 0.058 0.035 0.054 0.052 AIFS 4 AIFShera 6 0.04 0.05 0.031 0.018 0.024 0.013 0.019 0.029 0.071 0.027 0.048 0.019 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 7 0.037 0.065 0.017 0.008 0.006 -0.014 0.007 0.025 0.052 0.041 0.036 -0.012 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 8 0.036 0.058 0.018 0.004 0.022 0.002 -0.0 0.022 0.049 0.02 0.04 0.012 scienceAI 5 findforecast 11 0.001 -0.001 -0.003 0.019 -0.009 0.007 -0.015 0.028 -0.006 -0.014 -0.014 0.031 scienceAI 5 zephyr 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguPlusPlus 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguParametricPrediction 12 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguS2SEasyUQ 35 -1.063 -1.154 -0.984 -1.074 -0.847 -1.001 -0.952 -1.0 -1.177 -1.145 -0.957 -1.321 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 16 -0.13 -0.143 -0.178 -0.114 -0.084 -0.003 -0.112 -0.133 -0.147 -0.203 -0.156 -0.104 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 22 -0.259 -0.303 -0.256 -0.327 -0.232 -0.119 -0.224 -0.166 -0.287 -0.34 -0.332 -0.37 WindBorne 8 WeatherMesh 17 -0.166 -0.125 -0.163 -0.296 -0.14 -0.424 -0.2 -0.208 -0.151 -0.163 -0.123 -0.226 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu2 18 -0.191 -0.198 -0.289 -0.043 -0.158 -0.026 -0.219 -0.117 -0.083 -0.315 -0.358 -0.224 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu 19 -0.236 -0.332 -0.194 -0.111 -0.074 -0.172 -0.146 -0.139 -0.339 -0.427 -0.276 -0.278 HAPPY 10 AZN 20 -0.244 -0.259 -0.255 -0.538 -0.299 0.069 -0.072 -0.299 -0.303 -0.219 -0.316 -0.443
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.046 0.081 -0.001 0.063 0.009 0.034 -0.031 0.052 0.077 0.06 0.022 0.086 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.043 0.078 -0.002 0.052 0.005 0.033 -0.031 0.044 0.066 0.075 0.019 0.089 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 7 0.009 0.016 -0.019 0.054 0.003 0.018 -0.043 0.051 0.024 -0.034 -0.016 0.031 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 3 0.033 0.071 0.004 0.01 -0.009 0.004 -0.003 0.036 0.06 0.084 0.011 0.038 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 4 0.029 0.059 0.002 0.024 -0.016 0.018 -0.01 0.048 0.045 0.058 -0.001 0.023 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 13 -0.006 0.002 0.003 0.0 -0.005 -0.047 0.009 0.024 0.001 -0.015 -0.002 -0.046 LP 3 LPM 5 0.022 0.037 -0.004 0.026 0.012 0.023 -0.04 0.056 0.039 0.021 0.008 0.013 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.013 0.032 -0.003 -0.012 -0.005 0.008 -0.018 0.051 0.054 0.001 -0.015 -0.008 AIFS 4 AIFShera 8 0.004 0.013 -0.009 -0.015 -0.006 0.01 -0.016 0.024 0.054 -0.011 -0.023 0.007 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 15 -0.016 -0.035 -0.008 -0.01 0.002 0.023 -0.021 0.037 0.006 -0.113 -0.023 -0.013 KITKangu 5 KanguPlusPlus 9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguParametricPrediction 9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 zephyr 9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 9 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 findforecast 14 -0.01 -0.018 -0.009 0.028 0.004 0.0 -0.01 0.027 -0.024 -0.015 -0.025 0.019 KITKangu 5 KanguS2SEasyUQ 34 -1.086 -1.202 -1.004 -1.025 -0.84 -1.003 -1.014 -1.106 -1.168 -1.326 -0.955 -1.132 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 16 -0.186 -0.227 -0.245 -0.145 -0.086 -0.013 -0.206 -0.152 -0.22 -0.304 -0.226 -0.187 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 21 -0.33 -0.389 -0.333 -0.368 -0.286 -0.2 -0.318 -0.109 -0.355 -0.49 -0.435 -0.416 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 17 -0.199 -0.261 -0.265 0.029 -0.105 0.09 -0.108 -0.226 -0.117 -0.33 -0.331 -0.178 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 18 -0.255 -0.38 -0.205 -0.065 -0.064 -0.136 -0.109 -0.203 -0.37 -0.491 -0.252 -0.269 HAPPY 9 AZN 19 -0.291 -0.328 -0.268 -0.688 -0.338 0.021 -0.214 -0.396 -0.468 -0.227 -0.254 -0.569 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S1 20 -0.305 -0.248 -0.334 -0.343 -0.387 -0.335 -0.48 -0.24 -0.289 -0.28 -0.333 -0.306 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S3 25 -0.492 -0.577 -0.385 -0.298 -0.451 -0.59 -0.534 -0.267 -0.522 -0.694 -0.483 -0.559 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S2 27 -0.591 -0.615 -0.609 -0.591 -0.513 -0.603 -0.727 -0.465 -0.717 -0.631 -0.573 -0.545
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
