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This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 28th August 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
SON 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.071 0.106 0.05 0.039 0.029 0.02 0.072 0.019 0.057 0.065 0.094 0.105 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.069 0.103 0.054 0.034 0.03 0.01 0.078 0.012 0.055 0.087 0.092 0.102 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 9 0.032 0.031 0.041 0.029 0.015 0.014 0.065 0.015 -0.018 -0.039 0.063 0.057 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 3 0.066 0.129 0.033 0.012 0.001 -0.049 0.046 0.022 0.118 0.075 0.082 0.117 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 4 0.065 0.117 0.037 0.007 0.016 -0.021 0.052 0.031 0.044 0.095 0.091 0.092 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 10 0.015 0.049 -0.001 -0.043 0.008 -0.048 0.032 -0.035 0.009 -0.01 0.065 0.067 LP 3 LPM 5 0.053 0.076 0.049 0.051 0.018 -0.027 0.048 0.021 0.035 0.036 0.087 0.062 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.047 0.073 0.04 0.004 0.021 -0.023 0.078 -0.032 0.032 0.065 0.082 0.008 AIFS 4 AIFShera 7 0.044 0.059 0.038 -0.002 0.02 -0.005 0.049 -0.034 0.058 0.031 0.082 0.061 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 8 0.035 0.064 0.015 -0.013 0.018 -0.04 0.019 -0.038 0.012 0.038 0.068 0.02 KITKangu 5 KanguPlusPlus 11 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguParametricPrediction 11 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 findforecast 11 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 zephyr 11 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 11 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguS2SEasyUQ 38 -1.324 -1.43 -1.221 -1.327 -1.157 -1.195 -1.167 -1.133 -1.423 -1.436 -1.263 -1.814 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 16 -0.094 -0.118 -0.107 -0.146 -0.077 0.031 -0.039 -0.114 -0.123 -0.153 -0.121 -0.088 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 17 -0.095 -0.109 -0.109 -0.118 -0.095 0.028 -0.07 -0.136 -0.102 -0.161 -0.095 -0.039 WindBorne 8 WeatherMesh 18 -0.203 -0.181 -0.21 -0.26 -0.21 -0.301 -0.213 -0.229 -0.204 -0.24 -0.197 -0.228 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu2 19 -0.247 -0.163 -0.434 -0.085 -0.346 -0.123 -0.435 -0.145 -0.073 -0.294 -0.506 -0.175 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu 21 -0.287 -0.36 -0.289 -0.149 -0.154 -0.176 -0.245 -0.195 -0.381 -0.463 -0.378 -0.273 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S1 20 -0.249 -0.173 -0.285 -0.324 -0.164 -0.409 -0.193 -0.227 -0.197 -0.228 -0.153 -0.279 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S3 23 -0.39 -0.402 -0.376 -0.402 -0.313 -0.495 -0.29 -0.359 -0.5 -0.456 -0.296 -0.461 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S2 28 -0.556 -0.625 -0.547 -0.441 -0.393 -0.457 -0.269 -0.678 -0.725 -0.601 -0.451 -0.636
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.057 0.107 0.025 0.008 -0.002 0.016 0.008 0.048 0.083 0.083 0.049 0.104 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 4 0.046 0.077 0.034 0.013 -0.015 0.028 0.018 0.037 0.046 0.045 0.046 0.061 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 9 0.003 0.01 0.017 0.015 0.005 -0.029 0.001 0.007 -0.012 -0.025 0.034 0.003 MicroEnsemble 2 MicroDuet 2 0.054 0.092 0.018 0.035 0.015 0.016 0.029 0.029 0.093 0.054 0.039 0.101 MicroEnsemble 2 StillLearning 3 0.053 0.094 0.022 0.02 0.013 0.002 0.038 0.013 0.084 0.079 0.041 0.112 MicroEnsemble 2 Huracan 7 0.011 0.021 -0.001 0.026 0.005 -0.019 0.012 0.02 0.031 -0.037 0.001 0.026 LP 3 LPM 5 0.033 0.054 0.02 0.003 0.015 -0.008 0.013 0.046 0.053 0.014 0.039 0.017 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.024 0.04 0.025 -0.013 -0.003 0.004 0.004 0.033 0.078 -0.007 0.023 -0.02 AIFS 4 AIFShera 8 0.009 0.014 0.005 -0.008 -0.002 0.013 -0.007 -0.006 0.072 -0.023 0.005 0.001 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 15 -0.007 -0.028 0.013 -0.034 -0.002 0.024 -0.008 0.018 0.017 -0.126 0.011 -0.048 KITKangu 5 KanguPlusPlus 10 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguParametricPrediction 10 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 findforecast 10 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 zephyr 10 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 10 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 5 KanguS2SEasyUQ 38 -1.38 -1.494 -1.32 -1.22 -1.016 -1.336 -1.229 -1.431 -1.496 -1.559 -1.197 -1.388 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather 16 -0.179 -0.226 -0.173 -0.232 -0.132 -0.072 -0.144 -0.11 -0.237 -0.352 -0.228 -0.111 CliMA 7 CliMAWeather2 17 -0.201 -0.23 -0.255 -0.232 -0.114 -0.064 -0.131 -0.153 -0.224 -0.352 -0.267 -0.195 NordicS2S 8 NordicS2S1 18 -0.26 -0.27 -0.225 -0.31 -0.172 -0.285 -0.312 -0.158 -0.325 -0.406 -0.204 -0.272 NordicS2S 8 NordicS2S3 25 -0.507 -0.69 -0.283 -0.378 -0.256 -0.524 -0.329 -0.348 -0.696 -0.8 -0.346 -0.718 NordicS2S 8 NordicS2S2 28 -0.574 -0.648 -0.56 -0.643 -0.339 -0.498 -0.521 -0.531 -0.738 -0.69 -0.499 -0.597 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu2 19 -0.266 -0.266 -0.425 0.003 -0.225 0.042 -0.212 -0.257 -0.127 -0.33 -0.493 -0.304 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu 20 -0.312 -0.419 -0.313 -0.08 -0.138 -0.123 -0.127 -0.271 -0.429 -0.558 -0.374 -0.294 HAPPY 10 AZN 21 -0.39 -0.46 -0.384 -0.854 -0.313 -0.028 -0.409 -0.354 -0.653 -0.358 -0.352 -0.728
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
