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Created by
Dominique Lucas, last updated by Milana Vuckovic on Aug 24, 2026
8 minute read
Comparison of scores of IFS Cycle 46r1 (combination of research experiments and the current test suite) and IFS Cycle 45r1 (the current operational cycle) verified by the respective analyses or in-situ observations (TEMP, SYNOP, BUOY) at 00 and 12UTC in the period 1 June 2017 to 14 May 2019 (in total 645 high-resolution and 312 ensemble forecast runs).
Each symbol in a cell represents 1 forecast day, i.e 10 days for HRES and 15 days for ENS.
HRES
| Extratropical Northern Hemisphere | Extratropical Southern Hemisphere | Tropics | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | |||
| Analysis | Geopotential | 100 | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | △▲▲▲▲░░△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 250 | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲△△△△△△ | ▲▲▲▲△△△△▲△ | ||||
| 500 | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲△△△△△△░ | ▲▲▲▲△△▲△△░ | ||||
| 850 | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲△△△△△░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△░█ | ||||
| Mean sea level pressure | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲△△△△△░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△░█ | ||||
| Temperature | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲░█░▽▼▼▼▼▽ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲△△△░░░ | ▲▲△███░█░░ | ▲░█░▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲▲ | █▽████░██░ | ░▼▼▼▼▼▼▽░▽ | ||
| 850 | ▼░▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲ | ▼█▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼▼░△▲▲△△▲▲ | ▼▼░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▽██ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼░██ | ||
| 1000 | ▼█▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼▼▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▽△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▽░░△△▲▲△△░ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| Wind | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲███████ | ▲▲△███████ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲△△△△△△ | ▲▲▲▲△△△△▲△ | △△░███████ | △░░███████ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░█░░░██░░△ | ███░███△△△ | ||
| 850 | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░ | ▼▼▽██░███░ | ▼▼░████░░░ | ||
| 1000 | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ███░░███░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 10m wind | █▲▲▲▲▲░░█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲△△░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░▽▽░░░░█░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| Relative humidity | 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░▲ | ▽▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | ▽▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ░▼░░░▽▽▽▽█ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | |
| 700 | █▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼▼▼▼▽▽░░██ | ▽▽▽███░░░△ | ||
| 10m wind at sea | ░▲▲▲▲▲░░█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲△░░░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ░███████░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| Significant wave height | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ (*) | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░░▽▼ (*) | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░██░ (*) | ||
| Mean wave period | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ (*) | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ (*) | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | △█████░▼▼▼ (*) | ||
| Observations | Geopotential | 100 | ▼▼▼░△▲▲▲▲░ | ▼█▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼▼▼▽█░░░█░ | ▼▼▼░▲▲▲▲△▲ | ||
| 250 | █▲▲▲▲▲△△▲△ | █△▲▲▲▲△△▲▲ | █░△△██░░██ | ▽█▲▲░░△△░█ | ||||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲△ | █░▲△░░▲░██ | ▲▲▲▲░△▲░░█ | ||||
| 850 | △▲▲▲▲△△△░░ | █▲▲▲▲▲△△△△ | ▼█△░△░△△██ | ▼█░░△░△△██ | ||||
| Temperature | 100 | ▲△△▲▲△▲△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲██░█△███ | △△△▲△░▲△██ | ▲░░███▼░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░△▲▲ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲△░░△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░░△░ | ░▲▲△░█░△▲█ | △▲▲△░░░░△█ | ▲▲△△░█░██▼ | ░░██░▽▼▼▽▼ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲ | ░▲△░█░░█░█ | ░▲▲░█△░█░█ | ▲██░░█░███ | ▲█▽▽▽▼▽▼░░ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲ | █░△░░░█░░█ | ░█△░░░█△░█ | ██░███████ | ██░█████░█ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | █░█████░░█ | █░░░███░△█ | |||||
| Wind | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | △▲△▲▲░█░█░ | △▲△▲▲△░△░△ | ▲▲▲▲△█░███ | ▲▲△△░████░ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△▲ | ▲▲▲▲△░█░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲░░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲░░████ | ▲▲▲▲△△░░░░ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲ | ▲▲▲▲△▲░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░░██ | ▲░░▲△█△░██ | ▲░△▲△░△△░█ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△ | △▲▲△░░░░██ | △▲▲△░░△△██ | △█░░░█████ | △█░░△█░▲░░ | ||
| 10m wind | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | |||||
| Relative humidity | 250 | ▲▲▲░█████░ | ▲△░██░░█░█ | △△░△██████ | ████░█████ | █▲█░███░▽█ | ▽█▽▼▼▼▼▼▼▽ | |
| 700 | ▲▲▲△△▲△█░△ | △▲▲△▲▲▲█░△ | ░█░█░░█△█░ | ░░△█░░░△░░ | △░███░△██░ | △██░█░░█░█ | ||
| 2m dew-point | ▼▽█▲▲▲△△△△ | ██░△░██░△░ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▽░█▽ | |||||
| Total cloud cover | ▲▲▲▲▲△░░██ | ███░██△△░█ | █████░█▽░█ | |||||
| 24h precipitation | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░ (*) | ███░░░▽░░█ | △░△█△△░░██ (*) | ██░▽█░███░ | ▲░░△△█████ (*) | ░░░░░███△█ | ||
| Europe | Northern America | East Asia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | |||
| Analysis | Geopotential | 100 | ▼░░░░░░△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ░░█△░△░███ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░ | ░▲▲△▲▲△△△█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△█ |
| 250 | █△△░███░░░ | ░▲▲░███░░░ | █▲△▲△△△░░█ | █░△▲▲▲▲░░░ | █▲△▲▲▲△░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░ | ||
| 500 | △▲△░███░░░ | △▲△░░██░░░ | █▲▲▲▲△△░░░ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░ | █△▲▲▲▲△███ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░ | ||
| 850 | △▲▲▲░██░██ | █▲△▲△██△█░ | █▲▲▲▲▲△△△░ | ▽▲▲▲▲▲░△▲△ | █△▲▲▲▲△██░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█ | ||
| Mean sea level pressure | ░▲▲▲░██░██ | ░△△▲△██△█░ | █△▲▲▲△△░░░ | ▽△▲▲▲△△△△△ | ░△▲▲▲▲△███ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█ | ||
| Temperature | 100 | ▼█△△░██░░░ | ▽▲▲▲△░██░░ | ███△△△△△░█ | ░△△▲▲▲▲▲△░ | ░░█░△░█░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲░░█████ | ▲▲▲░░█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲░░██░ | ▲▲▲▲▲░░██░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░░██ | ░▲▲▲▲▲░███ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲△░██░░△ | ▲▲▲△△███░░ | ▲▲▲▲△▲▲█░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░ | ||
| 850 | ░△▲△░████░ | █▲▲△░██░░△ | █░▲▲▲△△△△░ | ░█▲▲▲▲▲△░░ | ▼█△▲▲▲△░█░ | ▼░░▲▲▲▲△█░ | ||
| 1000 | ▼█░△███░██ | ▼░▲▲░░░△△△ | ░░△▲▲△△△△░ | ▼░▲▲▲△▲△△░ | ▼░█△△▲△░█△ | ▼░█▲▲▲▲△░░ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲△△░██░██ | ▲▲▲▲△░░△△△ | ▲△▲▲▲░△░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░ | △△▲▲▲▲▲░░△ | ░░▲▲▲▲▲△░░ | ||
| Wind | 100 | ░░▲█░██░░█ | ▽█△░░░░△△△ | ███░░△△▲░█ | ███▲△▲▲▲△░ | ░░░█▲░░░░█ | ░░░█▲▲△░██ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲░██████ | ▲▲▲△░████△ | △▲▲▲△△△░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░△░ | △△▲△▲▲░░██ | △△▲▲▲▲△░██ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲△░█████ | ▲▲▲▲░████△ | ░▲▲▲▲▲△△░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░△░ | ░▲▲▲▲▲△███ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲░██ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲△░███░█ | ▲▲▲▲░██△█░ | █░▲▲▲△△░▲△ | △▲▲▲▲▲△△△░ | █△▲▲▲▲△███ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█ | ||
| 1000 | △▲▲△████░█ | ▲▲▲▲░░█△█░ | █△▲▲▲△△░△▲ | ░▲▲▲▲▲△△△△ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲███ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█ | ||
| 10m wind | █△░░████░█ | █▲▲△░█△░█△ | ▽█▲▲△▲░△△░ | ░█▲▲▲▲△▲△△ | █△△△▲△△███ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲░░△ | ||
| Relative humidity | 250 | ▲▲▲△░████░ | █░█▼▽▼▼▼▼░ | △△△▲△░░░█░ | █░████░░░█ | △█░█░░░░██ | ░▼░░░███▽░ | |
| 700 | ░▲▲░██████ | █▲△░█████░ | △▲▲▲▲△█░░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░░░▲ | ▼█△▲△△△░██ | ▼█▲▲△▲▲░░░ | ||
| Observations | Geopotential | 100 | ▽▼░░██△░██ | ▽░▲▲▲▲▲▲△░ | ░██△░░░█░█ | ▽▲▲▲△▲▲△△░ | ████▲△░░░█ | ░△▲▲▲▲▲△░█ |
| 250 | █△△░████░░ | █△△█████░░ | ▲▲▲▲△△△░░█ | █░△▲△▲▲░△░ | █░△░▲△░███ | △░░△▲▲▲△██ | ||
| 500 | █▲△░█████░ | ░▲△░█████░ | █▲▲▲▲△△░△░ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░ | █░▲▲▲▲████ | █▲▲▲▲▲△△░█ | ||
| 850 | ░▲△△██████ | ▼█░△░██░██ | █▲▲▲▲▲△░░░ | ░△▲▲▲▲░△▲░ | ░░▲▲△▲░██░ | █△△▲▲▲△△░█ | ||
| Temperature | 100 | △░██████░░ | ░░░△△███░░ | ░██△△△△░░█ | ░░△▲▲▲▲△░░ | △▲△░△█░░██ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░ | |
| 250 | ▲▲░░░███░░ | ▲▲△░△███△░ | ▲▲▲△△░░██░ | ▲▲△△△△░█░░ | ▲▲△△△▲████ | ▲▲▲△▲△████ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲░△░███░△ | ▲▲△△░███░△ | ▲▲▲▲░▲△█░░ | ▲▲▲▲△▲▲█░░ | △▲▲▲▲▲△░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█ | ||
| 850 | △▲▲█░█░███ | ▲▲▲░░████△ | ▲△▲▲△△△░░░ | ▲△▲▲△▲▲△░░ | █△△▲△▲░██░ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲△██ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲△△░██△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░ | ▲▲▲▲△▲▲△░░ | |||||
| Wind | 100 | ▲▲▲░░█░░░░ | ▲△▲▲░░░△△△ | ░▲△△△△△△██ | ░▲▲▲△▲▲△△█ | ░▲△░△█░░░█ | △▲△░△░░░██ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲░███░██ | ▲▲▲△░███░░ | △▲▲△△△░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲△▲▲░░░ | ▲▲▲░░△△█░█ | ▲▲▲△△▲△░██ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲△░██████ | ▲▲△░░████△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░△░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░█░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░██ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲░████░█ | ▲▲▲△░██░█░ | █░△▲△▲░░△▲ | ░△▲▲△△△░△░ | ▲△▲△△▲░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░█ | ||
| 10m wind | ▲▲△△△░█░█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░△△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░ | |||||
| Relative humidity | 250 | ▲▲▲△░█████ | ▲▲▲░█░███░ | △░█△█░██░△ | ░░██░░███░ | ░█░░▽█░█░█ | ██░████░▽█ | |
| 700 | △△░████░██ | △△░███████ | △△△△▲███░△ | ░▲△░△█░█░△ | ▲△▲░░△△░█░ | ░░▲░△△▲░█░ | ||
| 2m dew-point | ▲▲▲▲△██△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█ | |||||
| Total cloud cover | ░░███▽░█░█ | ▲▲△▲▲░△███ | ░█△△█△△░█░ | |||||
| 24h precipitation | ▲▲▲△░█████ (*) | ██▽█░░▽██░ | ▲▲░▲░█░░░░ (*) | ░██△░░▽███ | ▲▲░△░▲▲△△█ (*) | ░█░△░█░░░█ | ||
| Northern Atlantic | Northern Pacific | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | |||
| Analysis | Geopotential | 100 | ░█░△▲△▲△△█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░█░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ |
| 250 | ░▲△△△△▲░△░ | △▲░△△△▲△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲△ | ||
| 500 | ░▲▲△△△▲△△△ | ░▲△△△△▲▲△△ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ||
| 850 | △▲▲△△░░△△░ | ░△▲△△░△△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░ | ||
| Mean sea level pressure | △▲▲△△░░░△█ | △▲▲▲△░░△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░ | ||
| Temperature | 100 | ░░░△█░△░△█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░░△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲△△░█░█ | ▲▲▲▲△△░░△█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░█ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲△△▲░△░ | ▲▲▲▲△△△░△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲△▲△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░ | ||
| 850 | ▼░░△░△▲△△△ | ▼░░△△△▲▲△△ | ▼█△▲▲▲△░██ | ▼░▲▲▲▲▲△░△ | ||
| 1000 | ▼█▲▲△░△△░░ | ▼▽△▲▲△△△░░ | ▼█▲▲▲▲▲▲░█ | ▼░▲▲▲▲▲▲░░ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | ||
| Wind | 100 | █░█░░△▲▲△█ | ░▲△▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░░△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲△ | |
| 250 | ▲▲░△░█△░██ | ▲▲░△△░░△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░ | ||
| 500 | △▲▲▲△░△△██ | △▲▲▲△░△△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░ | ||
| 850 | █▲▲▲△░░░░█ | █▲▲▲△░░△△△ | █▲▲▲▲▲△░░█ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░ | ||
| 1000 | ░▲▲▲△░░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△△△ | △▲▲▲▲▲△░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | ||
| 10m wind | ░▲△△░░████ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△△△ | ░▲▲▲△△░░█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ||
| Relative humidity | 250 | △▲△▲▲█△△░░ | ░▼▼░█▽██░█ | ▲▲▲▲△▲△░░█ | ████████░▽ | |
| 700 | ░△▲▲▲░░░△▲ | ░▲▲▲▲△░░△▲ | ▽△▲▲▲▲△░░█ | ░△▲▲▲▲▲░△█ | ||
| 10m wind at sea | ░▲△△░░████ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△△△ | ░▲▲▲△△░░█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ||
| Significant wave height | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ (*) | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░ (*) | ||
| Mean wave period | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ (*) | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ (*) | ||
| Arctic | Antarctic | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | Anomaly correlation/ SEEPS(*) | RMS error/ Std. dev.of error(*) | |||
| Analysis | Geopotential | 100 | ░△▲▲▲▲△▲▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░░△△░████△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲ |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | █▲▲░░██░░░ | ░▲▲△△██░░█ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲░░░░△██ | ▲▲▲△△△░░██ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲△△ | ▲▲▲░░△░△██ | △▲▲░△△░░██ | ||
| Mean sea level pressure | △▲▲▲▲△△△░░ | △▲▲▲▲△△▲△△ | ▲▲▲△△△△△██ | █▲▲△△△░░██ | ||
| Temperature | 100 | ▼░▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | ▼▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼█░█░█░██░ | ▼█▲▲▲▲▲△△░ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░███ | ▲▲▲░░△░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲△△△△░█ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲▲▲△△░██░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░△△░ | ||
| 850 | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░▲▲▲▲△△△△░ | ||
| 1000 | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▽▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▽△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼█△▲▲△△△△░ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼█△△△△△△△░ | ||
| Wind | 100 | ▼░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▼▼▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | █░▲△△░░░░░ | ░△▲▲△░░△░░ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲△░△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△△▲ | ▲▲▲△△░░░░█ | ▲▲▲△△░░░░█ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲△░ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲△△△△░██ | ▲▲▲△△△△░██ | ||
| 1000 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲△▲ | ▲▲▲△△△△△██ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░ | ||
| 10m wind | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░██░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△█░▲ | ▲▲▲░░░░███ | ▲▲▲△░░██░█ | ||
| Relative humidity | 250 | ░▲▲▲▲△░░░△ | ░█░░█░▽▽▽░ | █△△░░△░░██ | ░████████▽ | |
| 700 | △▲▲▲▲▲░░░█ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲△△△░△█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲ | ||
| Observations | Geopotential | 100 | ██░△▲▲△▲△░ | ▼▽▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░░█░███░░△ | ▼▽░▲△△△▲△△ |
| 250 | △▲▲▲▲△△△▲△ | ░△▲▲▲△△△▲△ | █△░████△░█ | ██△△░△░△░█ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░△△ | ░▲▲▲▲△░△▲△ | ██░░█░█░██ | ░░△△░△░░██ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░△△░ | ░░░██░█░██ | ▼░██░░█░█░ | ||
| Temperature | 100 | ███△△△▲▲▲△ | ░△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | △░░░██████ | △△▲▲▲▲▲▲░░ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲△██░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲░██░█ | ██░██░█░██ | ░▲▲░░△░△░░ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲△█░△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△░△△△ | ░██████░░░ | △△░██░██░█ | ||
| 850 | △▲▲▲▲△░△△▲ | △▲▲▲▲△△△△▲ | █████░█░░░ | ░░████████ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲△░███░███ | ||||
| Wind | 100 | ▲△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ██░░███△██ | ▲░△△░██▲░░ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲△░░△▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░▲▲ | ░███░░████ | ▲△░░△░█░█░ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲ | △░░△△░░███ | ▲△░██▲████ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲△░░░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲░░░△△ | █░░███░█░█ | █░██████░█ | ||
| 10m wind | ▲▲▲▲▲△░█░△ | ▲░░░△████░ | ||||
| Relative humidity | 250 | ▲△▲△░█████ | █░△█████░█ | ░░░▲██░█░█ | ▲▲▲▲░░░░░█ | |
| 700 | █▲△█░▲░░██ | █△░█░△△░░░ | ██████△███ | █░████△░██ | ||
| 2m dew-point | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲▲ | ░██░███░██ | ||||
| Total cloud cover | △░△░░█░██░ | █△██░█████ | ||||
| 24h precipitation | △△▲▲▲△██░█ (*) | ▲░█░█░█░░█ | ░██░█░███░ (*) | ██░██░███░ | ||
ENS
| Extratropical Northern Hemisphere | Extratropical Southern Hemisphere | Tropics | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM RMS error | CRPS | EM RMS error | CRPS | EM RMS error | CRPS | |||
| Analysis | Geopotential | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ||
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░█░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░ | ||||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△███░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░███ | ||||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░△░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░█░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△█████ | ||||
| Mean sea level pressure | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△████░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲░██░░ | ||||
| Temperature | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░██░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲▲△△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | ▲██████░░░△△△△△ | ▲██████░░░░△△△△ | ||
| 850 | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲△ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▽░░░█ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▽▼▽░░░█ | ||
| Wind speed | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲△░░░△△△▲△△△△△△ | △△░░░△△△▲△░△░△△ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░△△ | ▲░▽▼░░██░███░░▽ | ▲░▽▼▼▽░██░░▽▼▼▼ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░△ | ███░█░░△░█████░ | ███░██░△░█████░ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░█░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░█░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░█░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░██░░█ | ░░░△░△△░░░███░█ | █░░░░△△░░░███░█ | ||
| Relative humidity | 200 | █▼░░██░█░░░██░█ | █▽██△△▲△▲▲▲▲△▲▲ | █░██░░░░█░△░░░△ | ░█░△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | |
| 700 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░█░ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░█░█████░░▼▽▽▽▽ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 10m wind at sea | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| Significant wave height | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░██░░▽ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△███░▽▽▼ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░▽▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲█▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ▲▲▲▲░░░░███████ | ▲▲▲▲△░░░░░█████ | ||
| Mean wave period | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░██████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░████ | ▲█△▲▲▲▲▲△△░████ | ▲░█▲▲▲▲▲▲△░████ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ░███████░░▽▽▽▼▼ | ||
| Observations | Geopotential | 100 | ▼▼▽░▲▲▲▲△░░░░░░ | ▼▼▽█△▲△░██░█░██ | ▼▼▼▼███░░░░███░ | ▼▼▼▼▼▽░█░░░░▽▼▼ | ||
| 250 | ▽▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░░░△ | ░△▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░△░△ | ▼░△▲▲▲▲▲░░░░███ | ▼▼█△▲△△△░██░██░ | ||||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲△░░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲△△░△ | △△▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░░██░ | △█▲▲▲▲▲△△██░█░█ | ||||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲△△░░░ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░░░ | ▽█▲▲▲▲▲▲░░█████ | ▽░▲▲▲▲▲▲░░█████ | ||||
| Temperature | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | █△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲░░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△△▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△△△△▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲△██ | ▲█▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▽▽▽░▽ | ▲░▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▽▽█░ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░███ | ▽▽▼▼▼▼▽▼▽▽▽░███ | ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼░░▽ | ||
| Wind speed | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░△░░ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█△△ | ░▲△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░█△△ | ▲▲░░░██░█░███░█ | ▲▲░███░░█▽██░░█ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░△△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░░█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░△░░█░ | ▲░█░▼░▽▼▽▽▽▽░▼▼ | △█░▽▼▽▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░█░▲░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█△▲△ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░░░ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░░░░ | ▲░░░△█░░░██▽░██ | ▲█░█░██░░█░▽░██ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░█░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░██░░██ | ▲▲▲▲△▲▲△△△░███░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░△████░ | △░▲▲△△△░░██░░░░ | △░▲△△△△░░██▽▽▽░ | ||
| Relative humidity | 200 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲░█████░░░█░░░ | ▲△▽░░█░█▽▽▽█░██ | |
| 700 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█░█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█░█████ | █△△△▲△▲△△░█████ | █△△△▲△▲△△░█████ | ▲█▽▽▼▼▼░▽▼▼▼▼▼▼ | △░▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲░██████████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△ | △△▲△△░△░████░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░████████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 2m dew-point | █░░████████████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△ | ▲△△███░░░██████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░██░██ | ▼▽█░█▲△▲△███░██ | ▽░██░△△△△░█████ | ||
| Total cloud cover | ▲▲▲▲░△░███░░△██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲▲△▲△ | ░██△▲░△░██░░█░░ | ▲▲△▲▲▲▲△░░△△█░░ | ░△██△█░░██░██░█ | ▲▲▲████░█△██░██ | ||
| 10m wind | △██░░██████████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░███░██ | △░░░█░░███░░██░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░░▲ | ▲▲▲△▲△░▲░█▲▲▲░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 24h precipitation | █░△░░███░░░░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░░░░░░△ | ░░░██░░░△░░█△█░ | ░██░█▲▲▲░░█░△△▲ | ███░███████████ | ▲▲▽▽▽▼▽░░░▽▽▽▽▽ | ||
| Europe | Northern America | East Asia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM RMS error | CRPS | EM RMS error | CRPS | EM RMS error | CRPS | |||
| Analysis | Geopotential | 100 | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░░██ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░███ | █△▲▲▲△△△△░███░░ | █▲▲▲▲△░░░░███░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░██░△▲▲ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░░△▲▲ |
| 250 | ▲▲▲△△△△△△░█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░░████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░██░△△ | ░△▲▲▲▲△△░░░█△△░ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░█░△▲▲ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░△░░▲▲▲ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲△△△△▲△░░████ | ▲▲▲▲△△△△△░░████ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░██░░░ | ░▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░█░░█ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░█░░△▲ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░░△▲▲ | ||
| 850 | █▲▲▲▲△△▲△△░░░██ | ▽▲▲▲▲△△△░░░░██░ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░█████ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△██░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲████████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲████░░█░ | ||
| Mean sea level pressure | △▲▲▲▲△△▲△△░░░██ | ░▲▲▲▲△△△△△░░░█░ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░△█████ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲████░░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲████░░█░ | ||
| Temperature | 100 | █▲▲▲▲▲△△△▲▲△░██ | █▲▲▲▲▲△△△△△△░██ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲△ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲△░△△▲△░░███ | ▲▲▲▲△░△△△△░░███ | ▲▲△▲▲▲░△░░█████ | ▲△△▲▲▲△░░░█████ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲░███░░△△ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲░███░░△░ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△△░█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲△░███░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░█░△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█░▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△▲▲▲ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲△░△△░██░██ | △▲▲▲▲△△△△░█████ | △█△▲▲▲△△░░░█░░░ | ░█░▲▲▲△△△░░█░░░ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░█△△△ | █△▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░█△▲△ | ||
| Wind speed | 100 | ░█▲▲▲△△▲△░░░░██ | ▼█▲▲▲▲△△△░░░███ | ░△▲▲▲▲▲△△△█████ | █░△▲▲▲▲△△░█████ | △░△█△▲△░███△▲▲△ | ░░△░▲▲△░██░░▲▲△ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲△△△░░░███░░▽ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△░███░░▽ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░██░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░░██░░█ | △△▲▲△△△△███△△░░ | ░△▲▲▲△△░███△△░░ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△░██████ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△░██████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░░△░██░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░░△░██░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░███░░▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░██░░▲▲ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲△░░░█░█████ | ▲▲▲▲△█░░█▽████░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░░△△█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△△█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░█░░△███ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△░█░█△███ | ||
| Relative humidity | 200 | ▲△△░▲△△░░░██░△█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲░█△▲░ | ▼█░███░░░░███░█ | ▼▽▽███░△△△░██△█ | △░░▽░▽░▽░█░███░ | ░░░▽░▽░░░██░███ | |
| 700 | ▲▲▲△░██░█░█████ | ░▲▲△░░░░█░█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△█░░██░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△█░░██░██ | █△▲▲△░░█▽█░███░ | ▼█△△△░░█▽█████░ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░██░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░█░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░███░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░█░△░ | ||
| Observations | Geopotential | 100 | ▼▽░█░░░△░██████ | ▼░██░░△░███████ | █▲█░░░░░░░█████ | █▲░█████░░█████ | █▽▽░█░████████░ | █▽▽░███░░█░░██░ |
| 250 | ░▲▲░░░░░░░█████ | █▲▲△△░░△░░█████ | █△△▲▲△△░░░░░░░░ | █░░▲▲△△░░░░░░░░ | ▽█░▲▲▲▲░░░██░△▲ | ░██△▲▲▲██░██░△▲ | ||
| 500 | △▲▲░░█░░░██████ | ░▲▲△░█░△░██████ | ░▲▲▲▲△░░░░░░░░░ | ░▲▲▲▲△░░░░░░░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░░△△▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░░△▲▲ | ||
| 850 | ▼△△△△░░░░░░░█░█ | ▼░△▲△░△░██░██░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░△░░███ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△△░░██ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲████████ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲████░██░ | ||
| Temperature | 100 | ░△△░△░░△△△△░███ | △▲▲░▲░░░△░░░███ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲△△▲▲▲ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲△▲▲▲ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲△░█░△▲△░░███ | ▲▲▲△░█░△△△░███░ | ▲▲░▲▲▲△△░△△░███ | ▲▲░▲▲▲△△░△░████ | △▲▲▲▲▲△██░██░△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲░██████△░ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲░░█△▲░█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲░░△▲░████░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△░△△░░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░△△░░△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░██△▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░△░██△▲▲ | ||
| 850 | △△△░░███░░██░░░ | △░△△△███░░██░░░ | △█░▲▲△△△░△░░█░░ | ▲░△▲▲△△△△░△░█░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░△▲△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░█░△▲△ | ||
| Wind speed | 100 | ▲▲△▲△△░░░░░░░██ | ▲▲▲▲░△░△██░░░██ | △▲△▲▲▲▲▲△░█████ | △▲△▲▲▲▲▲░░█████ | ░█░█░△░█████░△░ | ░░░█△▲░█████░░░ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲△△░△░░░█████ | ▲▲▲▲△░△░░░█░░█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░██░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░░█░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△████△░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△████△░░░ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲░░░░███░██░ | ▲▲▲▲△░△░███░██░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░██░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░█△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲█░████▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲█░██░░▲▲ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲△░██░░██△░█░ | ▲▲▲△△█░████░░█░ | ▲△▲▲▲▲△█░░███░░ | ▲△▲▲▲▲△█░░█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲░░░███░██░ | ▲▲▲▲▲░░░░█░███░ | ||
| Relative humidity | 200 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░△▲△▲▲▲▲△△▲▲▲▲▲ | █░░█░█░░█░△△△░△ | |
| 700 | ▲▲▲△███░░░█░██░ | ▲▲▲△███░░░█████ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△████△███ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△██░█△███ | ░△▲░░△░█░░░░░██ | █░▲░░△░█░░░░░██ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲△░△░░███░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░ | △███░███████░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░△░██░ | ▲△░██░░██░░░███ | ████░△△░█░███△░ | ||
| 2m dew-point | ▲▲▲░██░░░██░███ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█░█ | ▲▲▲▲░██░░░█░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░░ | △△△░░███░░█████ | △▲▲▲▲△░░░░░░░△░ | ||
| Total cloud cover | △▲▲░░░░███░░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△█△△△░░░ | ░████████░△△△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░△△△░░░ | ▲▲▲△█████████░█ | ▲░△▲△△░▽░█░░░░█ | ||
| 10m wind | █░░█████░░█░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△█△△△△░ | ░█▽█░▽██████░█░ | ▲▲▲▲△░░███▽████ | ░▲△△█░░████████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△△△△░█ | ||
| 24h precipitation | ▽░░░█████░░█░██ | △△▲△░△░███░░█░█ | █░░░███░△░█░░██ | ▲△△▲▲△█░█░░█░█░ | ░░△░△░░██████△░ | ▲▲▲▲△░█████░░△▲ | ||
| Arctic | Antarctic | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM RMS error | CRPS | EM RMS error | CRPS | |||
| Analysis | Geopotential | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲△▲△ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲▲▲△ |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░██ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░██ | █▲▲▲▲△△△███░░██ | █▲▲▲▲△△░███████ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲△△△███░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△███░███ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░△△░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░△△░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△██░▽░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△██░▽███ | ||
| Mean sea level pressure | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░░ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░△░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△██░▽███ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△███░███ | ||
| Temperature | 100 | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△ | ▼░░△▲▲▲▲△△░░░░△ | ▼░█░△△▲▲△△△░░△△ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲▲△△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲▲▲△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░██ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░△△░░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△△△░░ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░███░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░███░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| Wind speed | 100 | ▼░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░█████ | ▼▽▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░█████ | ▽█△▲▲△△△░████░░ | ▽█△▲▲▲▲△░█████░ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░░███ | ▲▲▲▲△░△░██░░░██ | △▲▲▲▲△△░███▽░░█ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░░░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░██████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░██████ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△█░██░△█△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△█░██░△█░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△█░░█▽░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△█░░░▽░█ | ||
| Relative humidity | 200 | ▲△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | |
| 700 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△△△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░▲△▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△██░░▽ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█░░▽ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░░░△ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░░░░ | ||
| Observations | Geopotential | 100 | ▼▽△▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△░░ | ▽█▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△ | ▼▼░△△▲△▲△△▲▲▲▲△ | ▼▽░░░▲▲▲△△△▲△△△ |
| 250 | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░█ | █▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░█ | ▽█△△△▲△△░░△░░░█ | ▽█△△▲▲△▲△░░░░░█ | ||
| 500 | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░█ | △▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░█ | ▽░▲▲▲▲△▲△░△░░△█ | ▼░▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░█░█ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△△░█ | ▼░░△△△△△██████░ | ▼▽△△△△△△███░░█▽ | ||
| Temperature | 100 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ░▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░███ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░███ | ░▲░█░▲▲░░△░░░░░ | △△△░△▲▲△░░░░░█△ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△△▲░████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲░████ | ███░░░█████████ | ███░░░█████████ | ||
| Wind speed | 100 | △△▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░███ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░█░███ | ░█△△△△░░░██████ | ██░△△▲░░░██████ | |
| 250 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░██░█ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░△░████ | ░█░▲▲░△△△███░██ | ░█△▲▲▲△△△██████ | ||
| 500 | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░░░████ | △█△△█████░████░ | ░█△△△░░██░███░░ | ||
| 850 | ▲▲▲▲▲░██△██████ | ▲▲▲▲▲░██△██████ | ░░▲░░█△░△░███░░ | ░█▲△░█▲░░░███░█ | ||
| Relative humidity | 200 | █△▲▲▲▲▲██░█████ | ▲▲▲▲███▽▽░▼▼▼▼▽ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲▲▲▲△▲▲ | |
| 700 | △▲▲△△░░████░███ | △▲▲△△█░██░█░███ | ▽███░███░███░██ | ▼███████░████░█ | ||
| 2m temperature | ▲△△░░░█████████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△░██ | △▲▲▲△△▲░░██░██░ | ▲▲░░░░███▽▽░░░█ | ||
| 2m dew-point | █░△█░△█░░██████ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△████ | ░▲░██░░██░█░███ | ▲▲△██░░██▽▽▽███ | ||
| Total cloud cover | ██░██████░█░███ | ▲▲▲▲▲△█░△△░████ | ██░█░█████████△ | █░████░△△█░█░░█ | ||
| 10m wind | △██░██░████░███ | ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲△█░△▲░▲ | ░███░░░███░░██░ | ░░█△░△░█░░██░░█ | ||
| 24h precipitation | ░░█████░█░█░░██ | △△▲▲▲█░▲▲▲△△█░△ | ████░░██░███░█░ | ▽░░░█░░█░░█░█░░ | ||
Symbol legend: for a given forecast step...
▲ 46r1 better than 45r1 statistically significant with 99.7% confidence
△ 46r1 better than 45r1 statistically significant with 95% confidence
░ 46r1 better than 45r1 statistically significant with 68% confidence
█ not really any difference between 45r1 and 46r1
░ 46r1 worse than 45r1 statistically significant with 68% confidence
▽ 46r1 worse than 45r1 statistically significant with 95% confidence
▼ 46r1 worse than 45r1 statistically significant with 99.7% confidence
2 Comments
Adrian Simmons
May 17, 2019What is the situation for the stratosphere? Why are results not shown for at least one or two levels with pressures lower than 100hPa?
Thomas Haiden
May 17, 2019We see statistically significant improvements in temperature and vector wind in the stratosphere. The signal is most pronounced between 100 hPa and 10 hPa, and it is present between 10 hPa and 1 hPa at short lead times. In the scorecard, emphasis has usually been on the troposphere and (extratropical) lower stratosphere, due to their relevance for most users. We will take your suggestion into account for future cycles.