Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Ivan, Ervin, Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/05/27/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/05/30/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/05/31/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
During the last days of May, western and central parts of Europe from France to Poland and Hungary was hit by events of severe convection and heavy rainfall. A man was killed in southern Poland hit by lightning. In Paris, a birthday party in Parc Monceau was struck, injuring 11 people, eight of them children on Saturday afternoon, 28 May. Several are in a life-threatening condition. Three people were seriously hurt at a youth football match in Germany. Heavy rain caused some localized flooding as well. On 29 May to 30 May torrential rain hit south-western Germany and killed four people. Flash floods affected many businesses and homes. The worst affected region is the town of Braunsbach where floodwaters swept away two bridges as well. Dozens of homes there are at risk of collapse and must be evacuated. This investigation will focus on the event in Germany.
2. Description of the event
The synoptic circulation was quite stationary and characterised with omega pattern over Europe: lows over the Atlantic and the Black Sea area and highs over the Mediterranean and northern parts of the continent. The areas affected by severe convection were located over a strong SW to W flow in mid troposphere and weak winds near the surface. Air mass was unstable with substantial deep layer shear which favoured the formation of supercells and organised convective storms.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
HRES forecasts and observations from precipitation valid 29 May 06z- 30 May 06z.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI an SOT for total precipitation valid 29 May.
The plots below show EFI an SOT for CAPE and CAPESHEAR valid 29 May.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases