Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
At the time of formation, TC Seroja caused heavy precipitation on Indonesia on 4 April 2021.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts from 3 April 00UTC to 5 April 00UTC every 12h.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (first plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid 4 April 00UTC - 5 April 00UTC, from different initial dates.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 1-day precipitation 4 April, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation valid 4 April in the 0.5x0.5 degree box outlined in the plot above. HRES –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
