Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/01/28/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/01/29/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
On 29 January a severe windstorm swept from northern British Isles to Norway. During the storm the Norwegian wind record was broken at Kråkenes lighthouse with 48.9 m/s in mean wind.
2. Description of the event
The figure below shows the warnings for this event. Red warnings were issued for the Shetlands and southern half of Norway.
The plot below shows 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 29 January 12z to 30 January 12z.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
24-hour wind gusts (29 Jan 12z - 30 Jan 12z) for o-suite:
Same as above but for e-suite:
3.3 ENS
The series of plot below shows cyclonic features where the colour indicates the maximum wind at 300 km radius.
The plot below show the EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 29 January from 00z forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases