Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:
1. Impact
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and short forecasts of total precipitation between 16 and 19 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show anlayses of z500 and T850 between 17 to 19
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI for wind gusts valid on 18 September. A big jump appeared between 14 and 15 September.
The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts of maximum wind gusts on 18 September in the box outlined above. The plot includes ENS (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot), model climate (red box-and-whisker) and maximum from observations (green). Note that only a few observations of wind gusts were available. Until 14 September 00UTC the forecasts had not picked up the risk.
