Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Picture
1. Impact
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 27 August. The hourglass symbols marks Galveston, Texas.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for the operational ECMWF forecasts. The symbols shows the position on 27 Aug 00UTC. HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below show track from ECMWF (left), GEFS (middle) and MOGREPS (right). The symbols show the position on 27 Aug 06UTC. The plot for ECMWF include HRES (red) and ENS CF (blue). BestTrack in included in black with circles every 6 hour and the position on 27 Aug 06UTC as hourglass. All forecasts had problems to capture (1) the northward shift in the observed track between 25 Aug 12UTC and 26 Aug 00UTC, and (2) the curve to the north on before the landfall. Some of the model runs had a northward bias in the early part that compensated (1).
26 Aug 00UTC
25 Aug 12UTC
25 Aug 00UTC
24 Aug 12UTC
24 Aug 00UTC
