Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
In the beginning of January severe and unseasonal rainfall hit southern Thailand, with daily rainfall reaching above 600 mm (5 January) for the worst station. At least 21 people have been killed due to the rain.
2. Description of the event
The plots below shows 12-hour forecasts of rainfall and MSLP from 4 to 9 January.
Te plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation for day1 as a proxy for analysis. Please ignore the right panel in each figure.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation (00z-00z) from observations (left) and the latest HRES (right).
1 January
2 January
3 January
4 January
5 January
6 January
7 January
8 January
9 January
10 January
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the ensemble evolution for the area that was hit by the rainfall reaching 600 mm on 5 January (southern part).
The plots below show the ensemble evolution for the area that was hit by the rainfall around 200 mm on 9 January (central part).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show weekly precipitation anomalies for 2-8 January.
The plots below shows forecast for MJO and Howmuller of OLR. No MJO was present at the time of the event, but it showed up as a negative anomaly in OLR.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases