Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Fernando, Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/03/31/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/04/01/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/04/03/sc/
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1. Impact
On the 31 March 2015 a strong windstorm hit north-western Europe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Niklas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32138213
2. Description of the event
The plot below show 24-hour maximum winds on the 31 March.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 31 March and MSLP valid at 12z on 31 March.
24-hour max wind gusts 31 March
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3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for winds gusts valid 31 March.
EFI and SOT wind gusts 31 March
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The next plot shows the probabilities of exceeding 10-year return period of maximum wind gusts. The top-left panel shows the verification based on ERA Interim.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases