Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
On 28 March 2017 the tropical cyclone Debbie made landfall on the coast of Queensland in Australia. The cyclone brought extreme wind and rainfall, leading to widespread floodings.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analysis of MSLP and short precipitation forecasts from 26 March 12UTC to 28 March 12UTC, every 12th hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show tropical cyclone tracks (ensemble - grey, CF - blue, HRES - red, obs - black) and positions on 27 March 12UTC (symbols coloured by intensity) for forecasts with different initial times (latest in first panel). The forecasts from 25 March and before had a strong northward bias.
The plots below show time-series of central pressure (top), maximum wind speed (middle) and propagation speed (bottom) for the forecasts from 27 March 00UTC (left), 26 March 00UTC (middle) and 25 March 00UTC (right). Note how bad the intensity was handled in the latest forecast (27 March 00UTC).
