Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Esti
Picture
1. Impact
Extreme widespread forest fires and very high ozone levels, mainly in Spain, Portugal and France. Check this page for more information European wildfires: July 2022 and European ozone pollution: July 2022
2. Description of the event
We can see from the synoptic analysis that the main cause of this heatwave in western Europe was the advection of warm air from North Africa, which was assisted by a quasi-static cut-off low located off the coast of Portugal. After moving northeastward on the 19th and 20th of July, the cut-off low brought some colder air and precipitation to western Europe.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 10 June to 19 July
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
Below we can see the EFI for 2m maximum temperature valid on the 19 July 2022 and at lead times day 1, 3, 5 and 7.
Below we see :
ENS probabilities of exceeding 35 degrees in 2 consecutive days (valid on 18-19 July 2022). A sequence of plots every 24h from 00-48h to 312-360h.
ENS probabilities of exceeding 35 degrees in 2 consecutive days (valid on 18-19 July 2022). A sequence of plots every 24h from 00-48h to 192-240h.
ENS probabilities > 99 percentile of model climate in 2 consecutive days (valid on 18-19 July 2022). A sequence of plots every 24h from 00-48h to 168-216h.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
2m temperature weekly anomalies for week 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 and valid on the week from 18 to 25th July
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
In general, very good predictability even 15 days in advance, however maximum temperatures were in general slightly underestimated and there were larger errors in the 2m minimum temperature.
