Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Picture
1. Impact
Between 6 and 7 August Skopje, the capital of Macedonia, was hit by flash floods and at least 21 people were killed. According to the reports, Skopje got more than 90 mm of rain in two hours. It is unclear when the rain fell, but satellite images suggest Saturday evening . Reports about the damages can be found here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37002364
2. Description of the event
The plots below shows the analysis for z500 and t850 (left) and short forecast for MSLP and 12-hour precipitation (right), both valid 7 August 00z. Skopje is located on the eastern edge of the upper-level trough.
The plot below show satellite image (from Dundee) for 20UTC on 6 August.
The plot below shows the 24-hour precipitation accumulations from observations received via GTS. The black dot is from Skopje and has more than 90 mm. Unfortunately we do not have any observations from Kosovo and cannot verify the northward extent of the cell.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show HRES forecasts for 24-hour precipitation (6 August 06z - 7 August 06z) and MSLP.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for precipitation on 6 August from different initial times (all 00z).
The plots below show the EFI for CAPE (left) and CAPE/Shear from the last forecast before the event. None of the products gave additional information about this event.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plots below show 16 ensemble members from 6 August 00z for 24-hour precipitation (6 August 06z - 7 August 06z).
ECMWF
COSMO-LEPS
4. Experience from general performance/other cases