Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:Linus
1. Impact
During the two first weeks in September two heatwaves affected Western Europe. During the first week the temperatures in Portugal and Spain reached 44-46C, with severe wildfires as a result. In the second week a heatwave affected British Isles with the warmest September temperatures in the past 100 year recorded.
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows the time=series of EFI for day 1 as a proxy of the extremity of the analysis of 2-metre temperature for the summer 2016. Among the four cities in the plot (Stockholm, London, Paris, Madrid), the highest values appeared in London and Paris on 13 September. We week before the highest values for the season appeared in Madrid.
The sequence of plots below show analyses of z500 and t850 from 8 to 15 September. The highest temperatures during the first phase were reached on 5-7 September in Portugal and Spain. In the second phase the warmest temperatures on the British Isles were on 13-14 September.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show 3-day EFI and SOT for Phase 1 (5-7 September).
The plots below show 3-day EFI and SOT for Phase 2 (13-16 September).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows the verification on temperature anomalies for Phase 1.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases