Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
Picture
1. Impact
On 18 December northern U.S experienced extreme cold temperatures.
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows temperature observations from around Minneapolis for 18 December 12z from www.ogimet.com .
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below shows 2-metre temperature for Minneapolis from observations (black), HRES (red) and Control forecast (blue) from 17 December 00z (solid) and 18 December 00z (dashed).
2-metre temperature for Minneapolis from observations (black), HRES (red) for the forecast from 12 December.
The plot below shows temperature diagnostics for Minneapolis.
The plot below shows a vertical temperature profile for Minneapolis for 18 Dec+12h.
3.3 ENS
The plot below shows the evolution of 2-metre temperature forecasts for Minneapolis on 18 December 12z for ENS (blue) and HRES (red), with the model climate in red.
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature on 18 December.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows verification of monthly forecasts of 2-metre temperature valid 12-18 December.
