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 Status: Finalised Material from: Linus


 


Picture

1. Impact

On 23 July Japan broke its temperature record when the city of Kumagaya north of Tokyo reported a temperature of 41.1C according to BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44935152). The temperature in Tokyo reached 39 degrees. Large parts of southern Japan, Korea and the north-eastern corner of China experienced the extreme heat.

2. Description of the event

The plot below shows the Analysis of z500 and t850 valid 23 June 12UTC.

The plot below shows DAy 1 EFI and SOT for temperature valid 23 July as a proxy for the extremity of the event.


3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plot below shows HRES (red) and observations (black) for 2-metre temperature in Tokyo on 22 and 23 July.



3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature valid on 23 July.


The plot below shows the  evolution of ensemble (blue) and HRES (red dot) forecasts for daily average temperature for Tokyo on 23 July. The warm anomaly was captured at least 15 days in advance and the extreme event appeared 6-7 days before the event.


3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material

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