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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti

 

 


Picture

1. Impact

Heavy floods have forced the evacuation of 1,600 people on 9 August in southern France and one man is missing. The worst affected area was around Gard, Ardeche and Drome.  In one summer camp in Saint-Julien-de-Peyrolas, in the Gard region, 119 children were evacuated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45134715


2. Description of the event

The series of plots below show analysis of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation (top) and Z500 and T850 (bottom) from 8 Aug 00z to 9 Aug 12z.



3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plot below show observed 24-hour precipitation (first plot) valid for 9 August 06z to 10 August 06z and HRES forecasts for 24-hour precipitation valid the same date (shade).



3.3 ENS

The plots below shows EFI and SOT for precipitation valid 10 August.



3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases

 

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material