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 Status: Finalised Material from: Linus


 


1. Impact

On 4 September the super-typhoon Jebi hit Japan as the worst typhoon in the past 25 years. The cyclone made landfall close to Osaka.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45406857


2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

The plot below shows the evolution of central pressure in Best Track (dots) and LWDA analysis (solid line). The analysis had difficulties to capture the intensification phase.


 

3.2 HRES


3.3 ENS

The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 4 September 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 4 September (first plot) to 23 August (last plot). Note that the cyclone formed on 28 August.

The plot below shows the forecast evolution of 24-hour maximum wind gusts for a point close to Kansai Airport near Osaka, valid for 3 September 12UTC to 4 September 12UTC.



3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show weekly strike probability (left) and normalised accumulated cyclone energy from extended-range forecasts.



3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material

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