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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim


 

1. Impact

The Easter weekend (19-22 April) was wet on the Iberian peninsula. On 21 April over 250 mm fell in Javea in south-eastern Spain during 24 hours, causing local floods.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts every 12h hour between 19 and 22 April.

The plots below show analyses of Z500 and T850 every 12h hour between 19 and 22 April.


3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show observations and forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid fror 21 April 00UTC to 22 April 00UTC.




3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for total precipitation valid 21 April. Already 7 days before the event the peninsula where Javea is located had EFI above 0.7.


The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for 24-hour precipitation valid 21 April for the 1x1 degree box outlined in the HRES plots above. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).  The average from the observations in the box is 79 mm, while the average for the last HRES for the same locations where 35 mm and for the full box 31 mm (as plotted in the figure).



3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

  • Good signal 8 days in advance
  • Missing the magnitude of the event around Javea also in shortest forecasts.

6. Additional material