Status: Finalised Material from: Linus,
1. Impact
On 11-13 September extreme rainfall hit south-eastern Spain, in the region around Alicante.
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts every 12h hour between 10 and 13 September.
The plots below show the analyses of z500 (contours) and t850 (shade) from 8 to 13 September.
The plot below shows observations of 48-hour precipitation 11 September 12UTC - 13 September 12UTC.
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations and forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid from 12 September 06UTC to 13 September 06UTC.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for total precipitation valid 11-13 September. In forecasts from 8 September and earlier, the EFI signal was shifted to the east.
The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for the grid point with maximum 3-day precipitation valid 11-13 September for the 1x1 degree box outlined in the HRES plots above. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Problem to capture the position of the cut-off low in the medium-range - connected to extra-tropical transition of TC Dorian?