Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
1. Impact
http://floodlist.com/africa/djibouti-floods-november-2019
https://reliefweb.int/map/djibouti/djibouti-flood-situation-dg-echo-daily-map-04122019
2. Description of the event
The plots below show MSLP and 6-hour precipitation from short forecasts covering 19-25 November.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation valid 21-24 November.
The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for 3-day precipitation valid 21-24 November for the 1x1 degree box outlined in the HRES plots above. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below show the verification of weekly precipitation anomalies valid 18-24 November. The anomaly over north-east Africa was captured at least up to range 8-14 days.
