Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
1. Impact
On 20 May the tropical cyclone Amphan made landfall in north-eastern India, on the coast south of Kolkata. The cyclone also impacted Bangladesh.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Amphan
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show time-series of various properties in HRES following the path of TC Amphan. The o-suite is plotted in red and e-suite in green. The forecasts are initialised 17 May 00UTC (left), 18 May 00UTC (middle) and 19 May 00UTC (right).
3.3 ENS
The plots below show tracks from HRES (red), ensemble control (blue) and ensemble member (grey) and intensity and positions on 20 May 00UTC (symbols). The BestTrack positions and intensities are in circles for every 6th hour, which an hourglass marking 20 May 00UTC. The forecasts shown are from 20 May 00UTC (first plot) back to 9 May 00UTC (last plot), issued every 24 hour.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for a box north-west of Kolkata (22.5-24.5N, 86.5-88.5E) for 3-day precipitation between 20-22 May. HRES (red) and ENS (blue). A few members started to pick up the risk for extreme precipitation on 7 May.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Te plots below show tropical cyclone strike probability maps for the week 18 to 24 May from extended-range forecasts. A signal for t cyclone in Bay of Bengal appeared on 7 May.
